Karl Rove promised to deliver George W. Bush and the Republican party an October surprise. Something that will help turn the party's sagging ratings around and help them retain the majority that they need in order to continue their plan of converting the US into a fascist corporatocracy. Many people have speculated on what this may be, I thought I'd take a second and speculate on what it won't be.
War With Iran
Right now the propaganda campaign is amping up for a US military strike against Iran. However, there is still some diplomacy being tried on the part of the EU, only because Bush is no statesman and Cheney doesn't believe in diplomacy. However, while I think an invasion will occur, I believe this won't happen until after the election. Here's why:
Right now, oil prices have begun to lower. There are many reasons and theories for this oocurance. One is the discovery of a huge oil field in the Gulf of Mexico. Another is the eased tensions in the Middle east due to Iran's desire to negotiate it's nuclear power ambitions. Another theory is that the oil companies have lowered the price of oil to help out their buddy in the White House.
However, the theory that I think fits best was postulated by Kunstler (September 18) in which he speculates that orders are down because Third World countries can't afford gas at $70 a barrel, therefore, they're not placing any orders. Also, the nation's largest consumer of oil, the US military may have stocked up on oil and has stopped placing orders as well. If they were planning on attacking Iran, they would need a lot of jet fuel as they seem to think they can win a ground war from the air, and would continue placing orders. A strike against Iran before the election would drive oil prices up again, thereby angering the US voters who are grateful to be paying over two dollars a gallon right now. Therefore, a strike against Iran as the October surp[rise, in my opinion, is out of the question.
Osama Bin Laden
Prior to the leaked intelligence out of France,Osama was suddenly on Bush's mind again. He even met with the president of Pakistan, where Osama was rumored to be holed up. Right here on this page, I speculated that the capture of Osama would be Rove's promised October surprise. But the cat's out of the bag now. While no one could prove he's dead, nobody could prove he wasn't either. The leak got a lot of people to question why Osama only turns up on tape when it serves the White House's agenda. A tape now would cause people to doubt it's authenticity, especially an audio tape alone, while Osama's "capture", undoubtedly dead, would give creedence to the rumors and have people (like me)say I told you so.
Another Terrorist Attack
Foiled or not foiled, another terrorist attack would prove to the people who are paying fucking attention that the NIE was right, and the Bush way of dealing with terrorism isn't working. There's not many more things that airline passengers can give up now short of flying naked, and we've all had a laugh at that. Another successful terrorist attack would prove that torture doesn't help, and that as much as they like to bluster about, the Bush regime cannot keep us as safe as the television-watchers have been led to believe. There is only one way that Bush could use another terrorist attack to his advantage.
In recent days, the Republicans have taken major hits. The Mark Foley scandal shows the voters that the people who claim to protect us from sexual predators are in actuality, the people we need to be protected from. The fact that party leaders sat on this information hasn't helped them out, especially if the corporate media has a field day with this, and cover-ups involving sexual improprieties is where they excel the most as far as exploiting. Nothing keeps the television-watchers tuned in like a good sex scandal and this one has all the details they need.
The lobbying scandals have caused some key Republicans to scurry off the map, campaign war chests in tow, which have now been converted into legal defense funds. All one has to do is remind the voters that the Republicans gained control of the legislature by running against the corruption in Washington, just don't expect it to come form the lapdog corporate media, because while they love a tawdry sex scandal, this type of scandal causes the television-watchers to switch the channel. So what's a war criminal to do when he loses his rubberstamp? It's almost as if he'd be better off if there were no elections at all.
Which is not that far-fetched. Powers granted to Bush via the PATRIOT Act include imposing martial law in case of an epidemic. Also, as Commander-in-Chief, Bush could suspend all elections. Congress just gave him the power to declare anyone, even American citizens, enemy combatants and the detention camps are being built. Is this the October surprise? I don't think so, although Bush's warning to citizens not to buy in to "the enemy's propaganda" concerning the NIE ( who is the enemy? The CIA?)sure gives one pause. All I know is what it won't be, so I guess we'll have to just wait and see.